Chega is basically the political equivalent of the People’s Party of Canada. The main difference is that Chega is constantly increasing it’s share of the vote from ~0.4 % to 26.1 % of Assembly seats in just six years and now is the official opposition. In Canada, this type of far right party has yet to win a seat.
Although the Democratic Alliance Party (AD) won 91 seats vs Chega’s 60, and refuses to form a coalition with Chega, so we are currently in a situation that one might describe as a minority government in Canadian terms. This means that Chega gets to influence debates and is making a lot of gains in it’s anti-immigrant policy, most notably the new immigration laws currently working their way through parliament as of June 2025, which include:
- Extending the residency requirement from 5 years to 10 years for citizenship, even for people who have moved here expecting the 5 years to suffice.
- New knowledge tests on Portuguese language and culture
- Tighter family reunification rules
- The possibility to revoke nationality when crimes are committed.
If Chega’s upward momentum continues at it’s current pace, Portugal will become ever more hostile to immigration. The future for immigrants in Portugal is bleak. Chega’s constant rhetoric likening immigration to an “invasion” is being widely parroted by mainstream media even today. This is rich from a country where first-generation immigrants only make up just 16% of the population, compared to 23% in Canada.
“Just go anywhere in the country and you’ll see the real invasion that’s happening: no control, no rules, no support,” Ventura said. “And what does the government want to do? Make it easier.”
– André Ventura source ft.com
| Aspect | Chega (Portugal) | People’s Party of Canada (PPC) |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2019 | 2018 |
| Founder | André Ventura | Maxime Bernier |
| Position | Far-right | Far-right |
| Style | Authoritarian-populist, nationalist | Libertarian-populist, nationalist |
Political Success
| Measure | Chega | PPC |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral success | 3rd largest party in Portugal’s Assembly; 50+ seats (2024) | ~5% national vote share (2021); no MPs elected |
| Media Coverage | High-profile, controversial, frequent TV presence | Marginalized in mainstream media, active in alt-media and social channels |
| Support Base | Disaffected rural voters, police/military, working-class | Disaffected conservatives, anti-lockdown voters, libertarians, rural voters |
Momentum
Portugal’s government has been very unstable recently, we have had three elections in the past three years. Therefore, we cannot assume that a 4 year election cycle will slow Chega’s rise. Considering that we are in a minority government situation at present, we can expect an election any year that is favourable to Chega, as it would be trivial for Chega to provoke a crisis resulting in the dissolution of the government again.
At the current growth rate of 16 seats per year, Chega will become the largets party in two years (2027), and could win an outright majority in four years (2029).
Finally, economic shocks from trade wars, foreign election interference, especially bot nets on social media originating from Hungary and Russia, or the inevitable political scandals that occur regularly in Portugal could accelerate Chega’s trajectory, so they could achieve a majority sooner than I predict.
Core Ideology
| Policy Area | Chega | PPC |
|---|---|---|
| Nationalism | Strong Portuguese nationalism, emphasis on cultural homogeneity | Canadian nationalism, emphasis on sovereignty, especially against globalism (UN, WEF) |
| Immigration | Strongly anti-immigration, proposes deportations and strict limits | Wants to reduce immigration, favors “economic class” immigrants, opposes multiculturalism |
| Multiculturalism | Actively opposes; promotes assimilation and criticizes Islam and Roma populations | Opposes state-sponsored multiculturalism; promotes “Canadian values” |
| Law & Order | Tough-on-crime rhetoric; favors harsher sentencing, castration for pedophiles, more police | Supports stronger sentencing, ending “catch-and-release” bail policies, more police funding |
| Economics | Corporatist and socially conservative; limited economic platform beyond populist rhetoric | Libertarian-influenced; supports lower taxes, less regulation, ending supply management |
| Social Issues | Anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric (e.g., against Pride in schools), traditional family values | Socially conservative rhetoric; against gender ideology, critical of “woke” policies |
| Welfare | Opposes welfare “abuse”, especially by immigrants; supports minimal social safety nets | Opposes federal welfare expansion; wants smaller government overall |
| COVID-19 Response | Opposed mandates, masks, and lockdowns | Fiercely opposed mandates, vaccine passports, lockdowns (core PPC platform) |
Relations to Mainstream Politics
| Aspect | Chega | PPC |
|---|---|---|
| Relation to the traditional right | Attacks PSD (centre-right) as weak; wants to replace or dominate it | Split from Conservative Party; accuses it of being too centrist and pro-establishment |
| Democratic Values | Some authoritarian leanings; supports constitutional reforms to centralize power | Supports populist libertarian principles; opposes what it sees as “authoritarian government” |
| International Alignment | Inspired by European far-right (Le Pen, Vox, AfD) | Inspired by Trump, Ron Paul, anti-globalist conservatives |
| Controversies | Racist and xenophobic remarks by Ventura and MPs; accused of fascist nostalgia | Accusations of racism, conspiracy-mongering (e.g., WEF “takeover” narrative) |
Key Policy Examples
| Topic | Chega | PPC |
|---|---|---|
| Immigration | End birthright citizenship; deport undocumented migrants; prioritize Portuguese culture | Cut immigration by 75%; end multicultural funding; focus on “economic class” |
| Justice | Chemical castration for pedophiles; harsher sentences | Repeal “soft-on-crime” policies; jail time for repeat offenders |
| EU/UN | Eurosceptic; anti-EU regulations | Anti-UN, anti-WHO, anti-WEF; wants to withdraw from UN global compacts |
| Climate Policy | Opposes green transition if it “hurts” the people | Climate change skepticism; opposes carbon tax and environmental regulations |
A Pro-Chega anti-immigrant street manifestation in Lisbon
Summary
Considering Chega’s rapid rise and continued momentum, and it’s anti-immigrant obsession, I believe that this creates a situation where Portugal will become an unviable option for immigrants from Canada within just a few years. I would strongly recommend against making long term plans regarding Portugal at this time.