Portugal needs immigrants more than we need Portugal. Europe needs immigrants more than immigrants need Europe. In fact, globally speaking, everywhere except Africa will be in steep competition for immigrants in the upcoming decades, and look back on this decade of anti-immigrant sentiment with deep regret.
Europe currently has a population of 447 million, which is set to decline to 419 million by 2100, despite immigration offseting the falling birthrates. However, with centrist parties bowing to the the increasing pressure from far-right Reform UK, Germany’s AfD, France’s National Rally, Portugal’s Chega, Spain’s Vox and other bad actors in every European country on the continent, there is a very real possibility that immigration to Europe could fall to zero or even reverse and go negative as immigrants like me return home to escape rising xenophobia, violence, and tightening regulations like Portugal’s Nationality Law and Immigration Law. In this zero immigration scenario, the population of Europe will fall from 447 million today to under 295 million by 2100.
In addition, the percentage of the EU’s population that is over 65 will rise from 21% today to 36% in a zero immigration scenario. This means that instead of 4 people working and paying taxes to support the pension and medical costs of one elderly person, this number will shrink to 2 people supporting one retiree. The results of this will be threefold:
- Europeans will need to retire later, or never retire at all, dying in their jobs
- Pensions and health care for the current generation of workers will be severely degraded or disappear.
- Tax rates and national debt will continue to rise leading to economic collapse, and further out-migration from Europe.
For those people who think that Europeans can be encouraged via financial bonuses or other incentives to have more children, I have two things to say:
- Incentivizing people to have more children via government incentives has never raised the birthrate significantly in any country that it has been tried. It would cost more money than Europe can afford, and have little to no effect on birthrates.
- Immigrants rarely integrate in the first generation. But their children and grandchildren are always perfectly integrated. The only difference between a person who’s grandparents are born in a country and a person who’s lineage extends longer into history is the colour of their skin. To try and raise the birthrate of Europeans instead of maintaining or increasing the current rate of immigration is pure racism, plain and simple.
If Europe continues on it’s path of reducing immigration, it will hardly be unique in today’s world or unique in history, but it will be a spectacular act of self harm.
Sources:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography/population-projections/database